Overview

Institutional Control Panel

IE
National SME Solvency Index
62.4pts
+1.8vs prior quarter
Avg. Infrastructure Tax Drag
18.7%
+0.6load on EBITDA
Active Cohort Volume
1,284firms
+42audited this cycle
Baseline · Entity LIVE
Entity
Indigenous Micro-EV Mfg.
REF · COHORT-EVM-04M
Node
ZA-GP-TASEZ
Sub-Node
KEMPTON PARK
B-BBEE
LEVEL 1 · 135%
Classification
UNORTHODOX DEV.
Data Provenance
n=4,812 pts
Automated Telemetry68%
Interrogation Data32%
LAST REFRESH23 MAY 2026 · 14:42 SAST
Predictive Index · ProprietaryMODEL v4.2.1
Infrastructure TaxIDX-IT
12%
▾

Capital diverted to bypass state infra (off-grid, tooling).

Sector Baseline 42%−30%
Time TaxIDX-TT
18%
▾

Contract velocity lost to municipal & supply-chain friction.

Sector Baseline 38%−20%
Execution GapIDX-EG
22pts
▾

Distance between operational intent and realised throughput.

Sector Baseline 58pts−36pts
Composite
17.3
Δ 30d
-2.1
Percentile
P88
Underwriting ImpactFORECAST · Q3 2026
Predicted Impact on Cash Runway
−4.2months
vs. unadjusted baseline of 18 mo.
Default Probability (12-mo)
LOW
3.8%
Sector median: 11.4% · cohort outperformance.
DSCR Headroom
18–22%
Absorptive capacity for revenue-based catalytic capital.
Underwriting verdict — Predictive Index drag is structurally insulated by localised supply loops and trade-secret IP; catalytic capital may be deployed without margin degradation.

Sector Solvency Matrix

Index pts vs infrastructure drag (%) · sorted by exposure

Sector
Solvency Index
Tax Drag
Status
Digital Services
71
12.4%
OK
Manufacturing
58
22.1%
WATCH
Agri-Processing
64
17.8%
OK
Logistics
49
26.3%
RISK
Fintech
74
9.6%
OK
Construction
44
28.9%
RISK

Risk Modeling

Live

Predictive triggers — 2026 landscape

Liquidity stressHigh · 0.71
Procurement concentrationMed · 0.48
Governance fragilityLow · 0.23
Infrastructure exposureHigh · 0.66
Model versionv4.2.1
Last recalibration14 May 2026
Live Registry · Risk Disconnect Telemetry

Bank Credit File vs. Operational Solvency — Per Entity

Every published cohort entity scored on both layers. The horizontal gap between the slate tick (bank read) and the coloured tick (Impact Economix operational read) is the disconnect priced into — or out of — current credit decisions.

Entities
10
Alpha
07
Risk
00
AGR · 1
Agri-Processing
+41Δ avg
Bank 39 · IE 80
MOB · 2
Mobility & Distribution
+33Δ avg
Bank 51 · IE 84
IND · 1
Industrial Production
+27Δ avg
Bank 59 · IE 86
FIN · 2
Embedded Financial Services
+17Δ avg
Bank 55 · IE 71
DIG · 4
Digital Infrastructure
+10Δ avg
Bank 72 · IE 82
Entity IDSector ClusterTrancheBankBank vs IE TelemetryIEΔSignal
ENT-MOB-09I
MOB
Green Economy (Electric Mobility & Industrial Manufacturing)
T-A
37
RESTRICTED
BankIE
84
EXCEPTIONAL
+47ALPHA · BANK UNDER-READS
ENT-AGR-05E
AGR
AgriTech / Marketplace
T-A
39
RESTRICTED
BankIE
80
RESILIENT
+41ALPHA · BANK UNDER-READS
ENT-DIG-03C
DIG
AI / NLP
T-A
51
WATCH
BankIE
82
EXCEPTIONAL
+31ALPHA · BANK UNDER-READS
ENT-DIG-07G
DIG
Institutional Incubator · Digital Innovation
T-A
51
WATCH
BankIE
82
EXCEPTIONAL
+31ALPHA · BANK UNDER-READS
ENT-IND-10J
IND
Sustainable Materials & Chemical Circular Economy
T-C
59
WATCH
BankIE
86
EXCEPTIONAL
+27ALPHA · BANK UNDER-READS
ENT-FIN-02B
FIN
Embedded Finance / SaaS
T-A
59
WATCH
BankIE
78
RESILIENT
+19ALPHA · BANK UNDER-READS
ENT-MOB-04D
MOB
Logistics & Supply Chain
T-C
65
APPROVED
BankIE
84
EXCEPTIONAL
+19ALPHA · BANK UNDER-READS
ENT-FIN-08H
FIN
Fintech (Gig Economy Infrastructure)
T-A
50
WATCH
BankIE
64
EMERGING
+14ALIGNED
ENT-DIG-01A
DIG
VFX & Animation
T-D
93
PRIME
BankIE
82
EXCEPTIONAL
-11ALIGNED
ENT-DIG-06F
DIG
Marketing & Media
T-D
93
PRIME
BankIE
82
EXCEPTIONAL
-11ALIGNED
Risk Disconnect Mapping

The Solvency vs. Liquidity Matrix

Anonymized cohort plotted against bank-reported liquidity and Impact Economix operational solvency.

Leading Operational Solvency · IE Data →
The Missing Middle
Low liquidity · High solvency
Resilient Compounders
High liquidity · High solvency
Distressed
Low · Low
Hidden Risk Profiles
High liquidity · Low solvency
0255075100
Lagging Financial Liquidity · Bank Data →
Inspector
COHORT-LOG-09B
Logistics Tech
Hidden Risk Profile
Lagging Liquidity (Bank)86
Leading Solvency (IE)42

30% Time-Tax cannibalising operational margin.

Mismatch between quadrants reveals where bank credit scoring fails to price external infrastructure tax — the core of the Risk Disconnect thesis.

Cohort Deep-Dive — Ground-Truth Audits

Where traditional credit profile diverges from qualitative solvency signal

COHORT-IND-04AAlpha Signal
Industrial Engineering & Infrastructure
Mid-Market (R15m – R45m ARR)
Traditional CreditAt-Risk / Low Liquidity
90-day B2B payment cycles
Solvency Signal94% · Exceptional Resilience
Qualitative Ground-Truth

Founder has integrated 100% off-grid power/water redundancies and localized supply loops, insulating operations entirely from localized utility degradation.

COHORT-LOG-09BRisk Signal
Logistics Tech & Last-Mile Delivery
High-Growth Scaler
Traditional CreditExcellent / High Liquidity
high-velocity transactional volumes
Solvency Signal42% · Systemic Risk Warning
Qualitative Ground-Truth

Operational margins are being silently cannibalized by a 30% localized 'Time Tax' (unmapped administrative bottlenecks and road decay friction) not visible on the balance sheet.

COHORT-EVM-04MAlpha Signal
Indigenous Micro-EV Manufacturing (ZA-GP-TASEZ)
Industrial Scale-Up · 10-yr Vertical Integration
Traditional CreditRestricted / Low Liquidity
self-financed capex; no growth-stage debt
Solvency Signal89% · Unorthodox Developer
Qualitative Ground-Truth

Proprietary composite chemistry, in-house tooling, and 40–50% local content with telemetry-instrumented BMS across 4 terrain nodes. Trade-secret IP strategy (21 withheld filings) denies a copy-path to overseas competitors. Capital vulnerability sits in residual imported critical components (tyres, windscreens) and un-capitalised TASEZ tooling burden — invisible to traditional credit filters.

Risk Trigger · Macro Shock Simulator

NOMINAL
Municipal Friction Level
20/100
BAUBACKLOGGRIDLOCK

Permitting delays, port-of-entry congestion, B2B settlement drift.

Grid Collapse Severity
15/100
STAGE 0STAGE 4STAGE 8+

Eskom load-shedding intensity & duration on industrial nodes.

Execution Gap · SimulatedIDX-EG
38.3pts+16.3

Baseline 22 pts (dashed). Throughput erosion under combined stress.

Predicted Debt ServiceabilityDSCR Δ
+12.5% headroom
Runway
11.3 mo
Default Prob.
11.0%
NOMINAL · Entity insulation absorbs shock; DSCR remains underwriting-grade.